The misbelief that independent events are statistically related represents a common error in human judgment. Specifically, it manifests as the conviction that if something happens more frequently than normal during a period, it will happen less frequently in the future, or vice versa, despite the underlying events remaining statistically independent. A classic illustration involves coin flips: if a coin lands on heads several times in a row, an individual might incorrectly believe that tails is “due” to occur on the next flip, despite the probability remaining 50/50.
Understanding this cognitive bias is crucial for students of psychology, as it highlights systematic deviations from rational decision-making. Its study benefits critical thinking skills, enabling individuals to identify and avoid this trap in various real-world scenarios, ranging from investment decisions to everyday choices. Historically, observations of this error have informed the development of behavioral economics, demonstrating the influence of psychological factors on economic behavior and market trends.
